Economic Cycle Tracker
Market Demon
A professional cycle tracker for reading macro conditions, identifying the current market regime, and translating the signal into expectations and a trader playbook.
Scenario Presets Manual templates for testing. They do not represent live market data. Open
Data Input
Macro Data Sync
Developer Settings
Live Data Tape Latest raw macro series used by the model. Show Tape
Data Evidence Full indicator table, scoring audit, and manual overrides. Show Table
Journal
Macro Notes
History
Saved Snapshots
Manual Baseline
Sample Market Setup
Template assumption
A sample setup with resilient growth, sticky inflation, restrictive policy, a normalizing yield curve, and mixed risk appetite.
How to use it
Use it as a manual starting template, then adjust each slider or press Sync if live data is available.
Scenario Stress Test Open only when you want to test how a shock can change the regime. Show Scenarios
Weekly Routine
Data Checklist
How It Works
Market Demon turns macro data into a clear market regime map.
This dashboard helps users understand the market environment using growth, inflation, policy, liquidity, credit stress, and risk appetite data. It is built for context, not certainty.
Data Flow
From Macro Data To Market View
FRED / Macro DataOfficial data and market series
Indicator CalculationLatest value and change
Score-1 / 0 / +1 direction
Category ScoreGrowth, inflation, policy, credit, risk
Market RegimeExpansion, slowdown, recovery, mixed
PlaybookExpectations and risk notes
Growth / Economic Activity
Measures whether the economy is expanding, slowing, or weakening using activity, demand, and labour indicators.
Inflation / Price Pressure
Measures whether inflation pressure is rising, falling, or stable. Hot inflation can be negative if it keeps policy restrictive.
Policy / Liquidity
Measures whether central bank policy, real yields, and system liquidity are supportive or restrictive.
Credit / Stress
Measures whether financial conditions are calm or showing stress through spreads and liquidity pressure.
Market Risk Appetite
Measures whether investors are behaving risk-on or risk-off using equity trend, volatility, USD, yields, and related market data.
Scoring System
+1 means supportive, rising, or risk-on depending on the indicator. 0 means neutral or unclear. -1 means weakening, restrictive, or risk-off. Not every +1 is bullish.
Regime Logic
How The Cycle Is Selected
The app compares growth, inflation, policy/liquidity, credit stress, and market risk appetite. When most categories align, the regime becomes clearer. When signals conflict, the app should classify the environment as Mixed / Transition.
Confidence Score
Confidence depends on signal alignment. High confidence means most categories point the same way. Medium confidence means some agree. Low confidence means signals are mixed.
Why Confidence Matters
Low confidence means users should reduce conviction, wait for confirmation, or use smaller risk. It is a warning against overconfidence.
Timing
Leading vs Lagging Data
LeadingPMI, yield curve, credit spreads, market risk appetite
CoincidentPayrolls, retail sales, industrial production
LaggingGDP, unemployment rate, some inflation data
Macro data can be delayed or revised, so the dashboard should be used as context, not certainty.
Execution
Macro Bias Is Not Trade Entry
Macro Bias: BullishPrice Confirmation: Not confirmedAction: Wait
Macro Bias: BullishPrice Confirmation: ConfirmedAction: Look for valid setup
Workflow
How To Use The App
- Sync latest macro data.
- Read the current regime.
- Check confidence score.
- Review key drivers.
- Check the asset-specific playbook.
- Confirm with price action and risk management.
What The App Does Not Do
It does not predict exact tops or bottoms, give guaranteed buy/sell signals, replace discipline, replace risk management, or guarantee profitability.
Example Interpretation
Regime: Mixed / Transition
Growth: resilient | Inflation: sticky | Policy: restrictive | Risk appetite: mixed
The market is not clearly risk-on or risk-off. Avoid overconfidence and wait for stronger confirmation.
Risk & Disclaimer
Use Market Demon as a macro context tool, not a guaranteed signal.
Market Demon helps organize macro data, regime evidence, and market-risk context. It does not replace your own judgement, risk management, or professional financial advice.
What This Tool Is For
Market Demon is designed for macro context, cycle awareness, scenario analysis, and market-regime tracking using economic and market indicators.
What This Tool Is Not
It is not a buy/sell signal generator, trading robot, portfolio manager, or financial advice product. It does not guarantee outcomes.
Important Limitations
Macro data can be delayed, revised, incomplete, or interpreted differently by markets. Model output can be wrong or late during shocks.
Risk Warning
Markets can diverge from macro regimes for long periods. You are fully responsible for every decision, position size, stop loss, and risk exposure.
How To Use This Tool Properly
Use the dashboard as one input in your process. Compare it with price action, liquidity, positioning, news, and your own trading plan before acting.